Yet for Trump to truly make a comeback in the 2020 election against former Vice President Joe Biden, he can’t just be his average self. He has to do much better than normal.
He’s averaged just a 42.5% approval rating among voters for his entire presidency. Trump’s disapproval rating during that same span has been about 53%, which makes for a net approval rating of -10.5 points.
The idea that Trump will somehow get his net approval rating into positive territory seems like a long shot. His net approval rating has only been positive for 1% of his entire administration and all those days were at the beginning of it (i.e. his honeymoon period).
Would a -4 point net approval rating be good enough for Trump to win another term? It’d be far from a guarantee. A -4 net approval rating for Trump wasn’t good enough to pull into the national polling lead against Biden in late March to early April period. No aggregate of polls I’m aware of got Trump within closer than a little more than 3 points of Biden.
That’s asking a lot.