We still have over four months to go, so there’s time for things to change.
But for now, Biden is up significantly in the states most likely to determine the outcome of the 2020 election, including the pivotal state of Wisconsin.
Biden was ahead by between 6 points (Florida) and 11 points (Michigan and Wisconsin) in all of them.
Again, what’s important to recognize here is that these polls are not outliers and are merely the newest manifestation of this trend. They look a lot like what we’d expect given the average. We can see this best in Wisconsin.
Fox and Marquette put Biden up by 9 points each in Wisconsin. Averaging the three polls, Biden has a 10-point advantage.
These three pollsters have shown a significant shift to Biden from the last time they polled the race. The average of each pollster’s prior survey in the state had Biden leading by a mere 4 points, so he’s more than doubled his edge.
Why am I harking on Wisconsin so much? It’s because it was arguably 2016’s most pivotal state. Wisconsin was the “tipping point state” in the Electoral College (i.e. represented the state that contained median electoral vote plus 1). It will be tough for Trump to win in 2020 without carrying Wisconsin.
And unless something changes, Biden is on a straight path to taking the White House.