Still, it’s worth emphasizing that with more than four months to go there’s an incredibly wide range of results that are within the margin of error.
For Biden to score a huge win, very little needs to change. Biden is ahead by 10 points in an average of live interview polls nationally. The largest Democratic win in the last 56 years was Bill Clinton’s 9-point win in 1996.
If Biden wins all of these states, he gets to just south of 370 electoral votes.
Yet, models such as these also have Biden getting only about 200 electoral votes as a plausible scenario too.
If we have any movement in the national polls like those two cycles, Trump would almost certainly win.
Now, the best bet is we won’t end up at either extreme discussed here. Biden, given his large lead nationally and Trump’s struggling approval ratings, is the clear favorite. The most likely scenario is he’ll end up somewhere in the low to mid-300s in terms of electoral votes.
Still, there are a lot of states with a lot of electoral votes where the polling has dramatically shifted the last few months. Biden may win all of them or none of them. There are a lot of potential scenarios on the table.