Yet a look at recent polls suggests Trump is outperforming where he was four years ago with a key part of the Democratic coalition: Hispanics. This could have implications for what electoral strategy Biden may need to take into the fall if he is to beat the President.
If we examine polls conducted over the last three months (so that we’re looking at 15 polls and well over 1,000 interviews), it’s Biden 58% to Trump’s 32%.
Doing the math, Biden’s margin of about 25 points is more than 10 points lower than Clinton’s. This is more because Trump is doing better without third party candidates than Biden taking a lower share of the vote, though both seem to be occurring to some degree.
Biden’s weaker margin is occurring even as he is doing better overall. In the last two months, Biden’s margin over Trump overall is nearly double in these eight polls (9 points) what Clinton’s was among registered voters (5 points) in the final 2016 polls of registered voters.
Biden is managing to do better than Clinton overall because of how he is doing with black and white voters.
Additionally, he’s basically holding Clinton’s ground with black voters. He averages an 83% to 8% lead with black voters over the last two months. Clinton was ahead 83% to 5% in the final 2016 polls.
Now, we’ll obviously have to see if the current contours of the election stay the same. There’s no guarantee that they do.
This could mean Biden’s best chance to accumulate 270 electoral votes goes through the north, like the president he served under, Barack Obama.
Either way, the polling does seem to show Biden’s campaign has some work to do with Hispanic voters. If Biden can improve with them, he may be able to expand his national lead further. If he can’t and Trump closes the gap overall, Biden’s relative struggles could make the difference in this campaign.